Dissecting Draw
Well the wait is over, the draw is out and now it is time to analyze and prognosticate.
Roger Federer on the top half looks like he is in a very good section, not that he needs much help anyways. In the first round Fed plays Devin Britton, the young American NCAA champ, who probably can’t feel too happy about that first-round assignment.
The first thing that we looked for to see was which half Rafa was on, and he is on the bottom half (it’s still a little weird to see that No. 3 in front of his name). That means that the Djoker is on the top half, but he is in the same quarter as Andy Roddick, and Andy has to feel pretty good about his placement in the draw considering he’s beaten Djoker three times this year already.
On the bottom half the big dogs are Murray, Rafa, Del Po and Tsonga and Murray opens up against the highly-talented but very underachieving Ernests Gulbis. And we we could potentially have a Murray vs. Del Po quarter, which would be a rematch of the 2008 quarterfinals, and that whole section is loaded. I feel that it is the toughest quarter in the draw.
Rafa opens against Richard Gasquet who is finally making his return after facing his suspension, certainly not an easy task for the Frenchman.
On the ladies side, Dinara Safina, the number 1 seed, looks like she caught a break with both Williams’ sisters on the bottom half. I think it’s a little tougher mentally for the sisters when they know they could meet before the finals.
Shaza and Dementieva could potentially play each other in the third round, which could b e the first big popcorn match of the tourney.
The resurgent Kim Clijsters is in line to play Marion Bartoli in the second round. Clijsters beat Bartoli a couple weeks ago and she is in Venus’ quarter. I really like Kim’s chances to make a deep run.
Serena looks to be in a very good position, with potential hurdles being Sybille Bammer and Sam Stosur who both beat her this summer.
I’m going to check out the qualies tomorrow to get a more accurate read of the court speed, some of my favorite matches to watch all year are the last round of qualies, which will be going on tomorrow, definitely the best free ticket day in tennis.
And props to Sam Querrey for winning the US Open series, edging out Murray and Del Po with his consistent results all summer.
My pre-tourney pick in the men’s field is Club Fed. Even though she hasn’t played well this summer it’s extremely tough to go against Serena.
Good dissecting except Rafa who I feel is still a bit shaky from the knee surgery and isn’t secure enough that his knees are ready………….I may be wrong but that does strange things to the head!……….if Roddick has a good start and gets well into this tournament, watch out Federer.
Comment by Susie — August 27, 2009 @ 10:43 pm
Do you see the potential for any early upsets, which “the convention wisdom” doesn’t see coming, based on your assessment of the way particular players are likely to match up — their playing styles and personalities, the surface, crowds, point in the season, etc.? Which match-ups (male or female) and why? (I’ll cut you in and mail it to ESPN.) Thanks!
Comment by Phil — August 28, 2009 @ 1:29 am
I agree with you. Roger seems to be playing at a higher level lately eventhough I still think he has played well better two years ago. So, that means, he is still capable of raising his game a notch. Everybody is waiting to see how focused he will be now that he has more responsibilities as a father.So, he still needs to win 7 more matches this week to prove that in a best of five tournament, he can do it again. Best wishes to him, he has really worked for it.
Comment by Denise W Reyes — August 29, 2009 @ 12:41 am